Tony Seba über die Herausforderungen für die Autoindustrie.

Dienstag, 15. November 2016

Tony Seba über die Herausforderungen für die Autoindustrie.

Tony Seba - das ist der, der auch einen Auftritt in Autoland abgebrannt hatte - erklärt noch einmal, was auf die Autoindustrie in Kürze zukommt.

Das ganze Interview lohnt sich - hier ein paar Auszüge:

Nissan ist gut aufgestellt und die EVs (Electric Vehicle) werden am selben Band abgebaut wie die ICEs (Internal Combustion Engine):

The interesting thing about that plant is that they make ICE cars and EVs not just in the same plant but in the same line. So you see the Leaf—EV—and then the ICE car, ICE car, ICE car in same line. So essentially when the EV market takes off it is ready to scale.

Das Problem der Autoindustrie ist nicht die Komplexität der EVs - im Gegenteil, denn es gibt nur noch 18 bewegliche Teile. Der aktuelle Erfolg ist das Problem. Hier wieder der Vergleich zu Kodak:

Making EVs is not difficult, it’s the business model. It’s like making digital cameras with Kodak. Making a digital camera was not difficult; they made so much cash from film that it was hard to let go of that cash cow.

Noch ein guter Vergleich - diesmal Apple und Foxconn. Der eine vermarktet und hat die Ideen, der andere produziert nur. Wenn Autohersteller den Anschluss verpassen, dann könnten sie als Foxconns enden:

I forget who said it, but there is the fear in the car industry now that they are going to be the “Foxconns” of the auto industry. Meaning that Foxconn makes iPhones and iPads but they don’t have a brand. If you look at the cost of goods sold for an iPhone, Apple is making a pile—a huge margin—and Foxconn is not. It works for Foxconn but it’s not a great business. So there is a fear in the OEM industry to be a Foxconn and it’s starting to sink in, but I don’t think it’s sinking in fast enough.

Später meinte er dann noch:

I was on German television a few weeks ago and I said this in a documentary there. One of their questions was, German car companies are great at manufacturing and I said, “That’s true. Guess what other countries are great at manufacturing? Taiwan. And how many Taiwanese brands can you name?” So what may happen if car companies don’t get it is that Germany may be the Taiwan of the auto industry. Nothing wrong with that, but essentially they are going to manufacturer stuff for somebody else.

Das mit dem Anschluss-verpassen geht schnell, z.B. indem man in die falsche Technologie investiert:

Volkswagen is still investing billions in diesel, which makes exactly no sense. It doesn’t make any sense at all.

Ich dachte eigentlich VW ist durch mit dem Diesel - ich bin mir daher nicht ganz sicher, ob die auf dem Gebiet wirklich weiter Geld verbrennen wollen. Allerdings hat Mercedes kürzlich bekanntgegeben, 3 Milliarden € dem Diesel hinterherzuwerfen. So wie Kodak damals noch schnell einen neuen Analogfilm vorgestellt hat.

Schön, dass auch mal die Hybrids angesprochen werden, denn die halte ich auch für eine Fehlkonstruktion. Viel zu aufwendig und beide Technologien müssen mitgeschleppt werden. Warum nicht das Geld sparen und direkt auf EV setzen?

Tony Seba:

No, hybrids are not disruptive. Hybrids are an eco thing (like the eco mode in Nossan cars) and they are a product line extension of the internal combustion engine. (We’ve had hybrids for 20 years or so and really they have not—with few exceptions—sold that well. Which leads people to believe, “Oh, hybrids have not been successful, so why would EVs be successful?” They are two different things. (..) The pure EV drivetrain is disruptive. Eighteen moving parts—that’s what’s disruptive. The fact that you can charge at home—or anywhere—that’s disruptive. You don’t need to go to the same old gas station and that’s disruptive.

So sieht´s aus.

Wer hätte das gedacht, sogar Kodak hatte einen Hybrid. Was hat es gebracht? Nichts.

An example of that is that at some point Kodak had a hybrid camera and not a whole lot of people know this. They had a combination—you took the film and instead of printing them you could basically [save them digitally]. That was their attempt to bridge but it didn’t work, as we know. Because hybrids in cameras, just like in EVs, are not disruptive but digital cameras just like EVs are disruptive. So I don’t see that path at all. It’s going to go from ICE to EV and that’s it—end of story.

Und wie schnell wird diese Entwicklung stattfinden? Sehr schnell!

In 2018 you are going to see level 4 self-driving in the tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of cars. And certainly by 2020 you are going to see them in the millions. The disruption is going to happen soon after that. (..) In many ways the technology, it’s not a 100%, but it’s improving dramatically. And that’s because deep learning technology, Artificial Intelligence, learns from data. It learns from experience—if you can say that, that computers have experience—let’s call it data. In all, Uber and Tesla are gathering a lot of data. Basically they are learning very quickly, and so their systems are improving dramatically and very fast. The more cars you have that are self-driving, the more you will learn, the faster it improves.

Und was können die Regierungen machen, um zu helfen?

The government’s role at this point is to help enable this disruption by helping the market make it happen. And they can best do that by getting out of the way.

Schnell aus dem Weg gehen! Aber das wird hierzulande wohl Wunschdenken bleiben.

Elektro | Autonom | Seba |

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